Methodology

Source Data

Truth Social and personal X posts are collected into durable archives with publication time, text, and source links. Presidential remarks and transcript metadata come from public presidential records. Spoken captions from Donald Trump's official TikTok videos are indexed as transcript evidence; TikTok post captions are not treated as spoken words.

For Kalshi word contracts, the site also checks each source agency declared by Kalshi for direct quotations attributed to Donald Trump. Only the quoted words are indexed as speech evidence; headlines, narration, and quotations from other speakers are excluded.

News is aggregated from Google News RSS and deduplicated by normalized headline and destination. Kalshi prices, volume, contract labels, and settlement dates come from Kalshi's public API. Travel evidence combines public schedules, speech locations, news, posts, and FAA temporary flight restrictions.

Refresh and Fallbacks

• Truth Social and X posts are checked approximately every 10 minutes; official TikTok videos are checked hourly.
• News and Kalshi feeds refresh on scheduled server jobs and retain the latest successful snapshot.
• Speeches, transcripts, catalysts, and movement evidence refresh daily.
• Pages may show cached data during source outages; displayed timestamps indicate the snapshot in use.

Mentions and Topic Measures

Phrase counts use case-insensitive text matching over the selected archive and date range. Speech matches can include indexed transcript text in addition to titles, locations, types, and tags. Topic heat compares keyword-family matches across the recent post sample, current headlines, and active Kalshi contracts; it is a relative attention measure, not sentiment or probability.

Markets and Correlation

Market tables place current Kalshi prices beside descriptive historical base rates. A speech or post percentage means the share of the indexed archive containing the matched phrase. Query Lab uses daily counts and standard Pearson correlation. Its lead/lag scan compares offsets from minus 14 through plus 14 days and reports the strongest absolute correlation.

These measures do not estimate contract fair value and do not account for every resolution rule, event condition, source error, or regime change. Historical frequency and correlation are not forecasts.

Travel Confidence

• Confirmed: supported by an official schedule, completed public appearance, or equivalent direct evidence.
• Likely: supported by strong operational evidence such as a relevant VIP flight restriction.
• Reported: supported by credible reporting or public statements but not yet directly confirmed.

Limitations

Third-party feeds may be delayed, incomplete, revised, or temporarily unavailable. Publisher blocks and paywalls can prevent direct-quote verification; unverified article text is not inferred from its headline. Keyword matching can miss synonyms and context or count negations and quoted text. Correlation can be unstable, especially with sparse series. Users should verify source material and contract rules before relying on any displayed result.