Trade rhetoric is accelerating — “tariffs” usage is up 0.31% on Truth and the matching Kalshi market is bid. Legal themes are cooling. Watch the FOMC decision Wednesday as the next likely mover.

Live Kalshi prices are shown for reference only — we never handle orders or funds; to trade, go to Kalshi directly. These contracts resolve on what Trump says during a specific event, so the most relevant track record is “Says it in speeches” — the share of his archived speech transcripts that contain the phrase. “Says it in posts” adds his broader Truth Social language (all-time, with a 30-day trend), “In news now” flags current news salience, “Often appears with” shows words that co-occur with the phrase — how often each appears across his posts (all-time %), with a 30-day trend on the same basis as “Says it in posts,” and “Upcoming catalyst” surfaces the soonest scheduled event (elections, Fed decisions, summits, cultural events) whose topic tags overlap the phrase or its co-occurring words. Every figure is a descriptive historical base rate — not a probability or trading advice, and past frequency does not predict future behavior. See our Risk Disclosure.